This post is also available in: Spanish
By Charissa Zehr, Megan Turley and Elise Ditta. Charissa is the MCC Honduras Rep, Megan is a service worker, and Elise just finished a term in July.
The international community has brought much attention to the Honduran presidential elections that took place on Sunday, November 24. The presence of many national and international observers made for a relatively peaceful day, but the political turmoil is far from over. Election authorities have not given final results, and are dealing with accusation of electoral fraud; however, projections show that nationalist candidate Juan Orlando Hernandez will win the election.
While international coverage of the elections has grown increasingly concerned in the last few weeks, the tension over these elections has been mounting internally for years. This presidency will not be won in one day of voting. The election results are the culmination of years of planning and use of a political machine that points to inequality and structural weaknesses in Honduras and not just fraud on Election Day.
National Party candidate Juan Orlando Hernandez’s predicted victory did not just materialize on November 24th. It is a result of years of careful planning, made possible by institutional weaknesses and a vulnerable population. In a country with highly stratified economic classes, political power and wealth are highly concentrated in the upper echelons of society. A very small percentage of Hondurans, a mix of business magnates and families of inherited wealth, form the oligarchy that works tirelessly to keep the status quo in place. It is the very economic inequality that has gotten them where they are that continues to keep them in power. But these wealthy few are not easily painted with either a blue or red brush. Found at the top of every major political party, they share a common knack for using anything as fodder for political propaganda.
Photo by Kathrine Rasmussen
It is no secret that Honduras has a very poor public education system, and this too can always be used to one’s advantage. It is easier to manipulate people that are less educated, that don’t have access to information or live in isolated regions of the country. All of these factors have continued to wear down the trust Hondurans have in the government and the belief that things can change. Hernandez is an expert in using the political system to win votes. He has served as the President of the National Congress since 2010, and has used the position to consolidate power and push through popular reforms including the hugely popular (70% of the Honduran population are in favor), and highly worrying, military police forces.
More recently Hernandez’s media presence and campaign rallies have been very strong and convincing. Honduras has no campaign finance disclosure laws, so there is no way to know where Hernandez (or any of the other candidates) obtained their money for the expensive campaign. Hernandez was also accused of buying votes from vulnerable populations, either directly or indirectly, before the elections. Some examples include giving away a National Party “discount card,” wood burning stoves, and threatening to discontinue a government social bonus program, the “Bono 10 mil,” if he was not elected.
In talking to many Hondurans, a common thread has been the expectation that Hernandez and the National Party would come out on top. Of course, supporters of opposing parties were distrustful of his campaign, but one has to acknowledge the number of people that cast their vote for him (even going against their party loyalty) because he was giving them material goods, benefits, and policies that appeased their fears of violence. While there is still a palpable skepticism of transparency in the electoral process—the reality is that he really did do whatever it took to get the real ballots cast in his favor.
In spite of these political games, there was a genuine hope for a different outcome. People hoped that this time, things could change. They hoped that with a large international community looking on, there would be less tolerance for corruption. People knew the electoral process was flawed, but they showed up to cast their ballot, driven by a hope that things have to get better.
One of the reasons for that hope was the change from a bipartisan system to a multi-party system. Hernandez currently has only 34% of the votes. While the non-nationalist vote was split among Libre (29%), PAC (16%), and the Liberal Party (21%) in the presidential elections, the hope is that this diversity of electoral opinion will come into full force in the Congressional elections, where the National Party could only hold a minority of seats. What will this look like for Hernandez’s presidency? A potentially divided Congress could signify less congressional action and more executive power. However, the hope among those who did not vote for Hernandez is for an executive branch held in check by a more balanced Congress that reflects the diversity of Honduran opinion more than ever before.
The despair with the security concerns, economic woes, and corruption combined with the sudden birth of more political options have led to a more active, aware constituency that uses other democratic methods (protests, political watchdog organizations, greater and more diverse dissemination of information through the media, new political parties, etc.) to call for justice. In a historically oppressed and disillusioned political atmosphere, Hondurans have started to find their own voices. Hondurans will have to adjust to the idea of having a president unsupported by the majority – an advantage to the extent that Hondurans can respect their own prophetic voice, and use it to work for change.
Was the whole political system and weak government going to be turned upside-down in one election cycle? Maybe not. The inequality among Honduran classes run deep, as do political ties to a bi-partisan system controlled by an oligarchy. The obstacles for a new president–from any party–are daunting. But we are hopeful that this political momentum will spark the change that Honduras has been waiting for.